Brazil was eliminated in the Round of 16 by Norway (2-1), with Erling Haaland scoring twice — marking Brazil's earliest World Cup exit since 1990. France reached the semifinals before losing to Spain, and Argentina reached the final before losing to Spain 1-0 in extra time. Brazil clearly did not outperform France or Argentina, confirming the prediction that Brazil was not on their level.

Belgium defeated the USA 4-1 on July 6, 2026 in the Round of 16, completely reversing the predicted outcome. Charles De Ketelaere scored twice, Hans Vanaken added a third after a goalkeeper error, and Romelu Lukaku sealed it in stoppage time — the USA's only goal was a Malik Tillman free kick. McCarty correctly anticipated Belgium's depth (De Bruyne/Doku/Lukaku as second-half threats, with Lukaku indeed scoring) but was wrong on every other dimension: winner, scoreline, and dominant team.

Spain did win the 2026 World Cup Final over Argentina on July 19, 2026, by a 1-0 scoreline decided in extra time via a Ferran Torres goal in the 106th minute. Spain was statistically dominant — 20 shots to Argentina's 2, an xG of 1.94 vs. 0.20 — but the margin of victory was just one goal, falling well short of the 3+ goal 'comfortable' threshold specified in the resolution criteria. The prediction correctly identified Spain as the winner and cited their technical superiority, but the actual result was narrow rather than comfortable.